Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal approaches to modelling dengue fever: a systematic review

Aswi, A. and Cramb, S. M. and Moraga, P. and Mengersen, K.

Epidemiology and Infection (2019) 147:

DOI: 10.1017/s0950268818002807

Abstract

Dengue fever (DF) is one of the world’s most disabling mosquito-borne diseases, with a variety of approaches available to model its spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper aims to identify and compare the different spatial and spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling methods that have been applied to DF and examine influential covariates that have been reportedly associated with the risk of DF. A systematic search was performed in December 2017, using Web of Science, Scopus, ScienceDirect, PubMed, ProQuest and Medline (via Ebscohost) electronic databases. The search was restricted to refereed journal articles published in English from January 2000 to November 2017. Thirty-one articles met the inclusion criteria. Using a modified quality assessment tool, the median quality score across studies was 14/16. The most popular Bayesian statistical approach to dengue modelling was a generalised linear mixed model with spatial random effects described by a conditional autoregressive prior. A limited number of studies included spatio-temporal random effects. Temperature and precipitation were shown to often influence the risk of dengue. Developing spatio-temporal random-effect models, considering other priors, using a dataset that covers an extended time period, and investigating other covariates would help to better understand and control DF transmission.

Citation

Aswi, A., Cramb, S. M., Moraga, P., & Mengersen, K. (2019). Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal approaches to modelling dengue fever: a systematic review. Epidemiology and Infection, 147(e33). https://doi.org/10.1017/s0950268818002807 epidemiology, models, temperature, dengue, communicable diseases, infectious diseases, Prion, Viral, Bacterial and Fungal Pathogens of Humans [VV210], Public Health Pests, Vectors and Intermediate Hosts [VV230], vector-borne diseases, Veterinary Pests, Vectors and Intermediate Hosts [LL823], dengue virus, quality assurance, quality controls, mosquito-borne diseases

Keywords

• epidemiology
• models
• temperature
• dengue
• communicable diseases
• infectious diseases
• Prion
• Viral
• Bacterial and Fungal Pathogens of Humans [VV210]
• Public Health Pests
• Vectors and Intermediate Hosts [VV230]
• vector-borne diseases
• Veterinary Pests
• Vectors and Intermediate Hosts [LL823]
• dengue virus
• quality assurance
• quality controls
• mosquito-borne diseases