Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Radchuk, V. and Reed, T. and Teplitsky, C. and van de Pol, M. and Charmantier, A. and Hassall, C. and Adamík, P. and Adriaensen, F. and Ahola, M. P. and Arcese, P. and Miguel Avilés, J. and Balbontin, J. and Berg, K. S. and Borras, A. and Burthe, S. and Clobert, J. and Dehnhard, N. and de Lope, F. and Dhondt, A. A. and Dingemanse, N. J. and Doi, H. and Eeva, T. and Fickel, J. and Filella, I. and Fossøy, F. and Goodenough, A. E. and Hall, S. J. G. and Hansson, B. and Harris, M. and Hasselquist, D. and Hickler, T. and Joshi, J. and Kharouba, H. and Martínez, J. G. and Mihoub, J. B. and Mills, J. A. and Molina-Morales, M. and Moksnes, A. and Ozgul, A. and Parejo, D. and Pilard, P. and Poisbleau, M. and Rousset, F. and Rödel, M. O. and Scott, D. and Senar, J. C. and Stefanescu, C. and Stokke, B. G. and Kusano, T. and Tarka, M. and Tarwater, C. E. and Thonicke, K. and Thorley, J. and Wilting, A. and Tryjanowski, P. and Merilä, J. and Sheldon, B. C. and Pape Møller, A. and Matthysen, E. and Janzen, F. and Dobson, F. S. and Visser, M. E. and Beissinger, S. R. and Courtiol, A. and Kramer-Schadt, S.

Nat Commun (2019) 10: 3109

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4

Abstract

Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

Citation

Radchuk, V., Reed, T., Teplitsky, C., van de Pol, M., Charmantier, A., Hassall, C., Adamík, P., Adriaensen, F., Ahola, M. P., Arcese, P., Miguel Avilés, J., Balbontin, J., Berg, K. S., Borras, A., Burthe, S., Clobert, J., Dehnhard, N., de Lope, F., Dhondt, A. A., … Kramer-Schadt, S. (2019). Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient. Nat Commun, 10(1), 3109. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4 Animals, Time Factors, *Phenotype, Birds/*physiology, *Climate Change, Acclimatization/*physiology, Selection, Genetic/physiology

Keywords

• Animals
• Time Factors
• *Phenotype
• Birds/*physiology
• *Climate Change
• Acclimatization/*physiology
• Selection
• Genetic/physiology